Of things NATO, 2: The Second Allied Foresight Conference, and beyond

Image of Emperor Marcus Aurelius statue in Rome

While the process of researching and writing the paper described in the previous post was going on, I was also in contact with another part of the strategic foresight branch at ACT who were beginning to co-organise the second allied foresight conference, thus fulfilling SACT General Lavigne’s wish from the 2024 Helsinki conference for these conferences to become a “tradition”. While that first conference in Helsinki was held in a hotel, which had certain security implications associated with it given the proximity of that city to a fairly staunch NATO adversary, the second one was being planned to be held at NATO Defense College in Rome, which is located inside a military base. Thus, security was going to be both more and less of an issue this time around.

Continue reading “Of things NATO, 2: The Second Allied Foresight Conference, and beyond”

Of things NATO, 1: The future of the rules-based international order

Animated radar by Futures Platform of the FRBIO

I mentioned a while ago that I was working on a paper on the not-at-all scary little topic of “the future of the rules-based international order”, having been commissioned by NATO to write it. Well, it was finally published online in early November last year, having been submitted just before Easter (ie early April). The full reference with link is given below. Here I want to describe something of the background to the paper as well as the process of getting it to print, which took about 18 months from the initial email canvassing the idea to the final version appearing on the internet. Much of this post was written late last year and only very recently completed.

Continue reading “Of things NATO, 1: The future of the rules-based international order”

The New Abnormal podcast episode

After the Future Force Talk podcast episode, I did an interview on The New Abnormal podcast hosted by Sean Pillot de Chenecey. It was recorded a couple of weeks before a presentation I was to give at a NATO conference in Rome last October. I will describe the lead-up to that presentation, and the paper it was based upon, in a subsequent post.

Continue reading “The New Abnormal podcast episode”

Future Force Talk podcast episode

I recently did a podcast interview on the Future Force Talk podcast, which is hosted by the Hungarian Defence Ministry’s Defence Innovation Research Institute (in Hungarian: Védelmi Innovációs Kutató Intézet, which has the wonderful acronym VIKI). The podcast host is Dr Gergely Németh, the Director of VIKI, who was formerly the Branch Head of the Strategic Foresight Branch at NATO’s Allied Command Transformation.

Continue reading “Future Force Talk podcast episode”

Two recent activities – a podcast and a presentation

I see that it has been quite a while since I posted here. This is mainly because for the past year or so, and most especially the last six months, I have been immersed up to my eyelobes [sic] in the International Relations literature working on a thematic paper on the future of the rules-based international order. I’ll delay any further discussion about this until the paper is published and then reflect on what that was like. But you can probably guess from the previous blog entry who this was for…
Continue reading “Two recent activities – a podcast and a presentation”

NATO’s First Allied Foresight Conference

Last week, I was invited to attend and present at the First Allied Foresight Conference, organised by NATO’s Allied Command Transformation in conjunction with the Finnish Ministry of Defence. This follows a very successful Foresight Symposium held in Washington DC around this time last year.

Continue reading “NATO’s First Allied Foresight Conference”

NATO’s Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023

Last year I contributed to the development of the Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 (SFA23), undertaken by the Strategic Foresight Branch of NATO’s Allied Command Transformation. This was a more-than-year-long effort combining the expertise of some 800 workshop participants, together with the experience of around 20 or so members of a core reference team who got to see, comment upon, and make suggestions for inclusion into, earlier draft versions of the Report (see page 98 of the SFA23 to see their names). It was amazing to see the document take shape over that time.
Continue reading “NATO’s Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023”

Scanning hits over at LinkedIn

In the spirit of the Scanning Retrospective, I now publish some of my scanning hits over at LinkedIn, on a dedicated page called, of course (what else?), TheVoroscope. I typically post only 2-3 per week, and then only if they are something that catches my eye, so if you look through the hits from the Scanning Retrospective and you find them interesting or quirky enough, or they seem to resonate for you, you might want to consider “following” TheVoroscope page over at LinkedIn.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/thevoroscope/

 

National Security Podcast episode – Mapping the Future

A few weeks ago I was in Canberra to teach into the Advanced Futures course run by the Futures Hub at the National Security College (NSC), which is part of a joint initiative between the Australian Commonwealth Government and The Australian National University (ANU).

Continue reading “National Security Podcast episode – Mapping the Future”

AusCERT Podcast interview – What Does The Future Hold?

While at the AusCERT Conference back in May, I recorded a podcast interview with my old friend, tech aficionado and general tech fan-boy all-rounder Anthony Caruana. We’ve known each other for nearly 30 years, and our paths have criss-crossed many times over the course of our careers, so it was kind of fun to catch up once again for a chat.

Continue reading “AusCERT Podcast interview – What Does The Future Hold?”

Podcast for Inquiry interview

I recently recorded a podcast episode with Leslie Rosenblood of the Centre for Inquiry Canada, which produces the (aptly-named) Podcast for Inquiry.

Leslie has a wonderful ability to take conversations in new directions on the spur-of-the-moment. You can hear this in his other interviews, and in the way this one branched out several times. And also in how it tried to finish but couldn’t quite do so, the first time, no doubt due to my worrying that I had forgotten something I’d meant to speak about (the Sept 11 story).

Anyway, it was fun to do, and I hope that readers of this blog might find it useful. Sometimes it is much easier to hear someone speak about their subject than to simply read it. I hope you enjoy it.

https://centreforinquiry.ca/futures-studies-with-joseph-voros/

Scanning Retrospective, No. 36

‘From the pages of prospect’ – No. 11

[Originally published] Issue 10, December 2002

    • [Intro to new format for prospect]
    • [Description of selection criteria for inclusion of items (‘hits’) in the  FPR strategic scanning database (SSD)]
    • [Sign-off from FPR, editorship of prospect and authorship of the Snippets]
    • [Ten scanning ‘hits’ from the SSD]
    • Foresight Snippets, No. 25

Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 36”

Scanning Retrospective, No. 35

‘From the pages of prospect’ – No. 10

[Originally published] Issue 9, September 2002
Special Issue – Environmental Scanning

  • Environmental scanning
  • Environmental scanning in four worlds
  • Reframing environmental scanning
  • Foresight Snippets, No. 24

Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 35”

Scanning Retrospective, No. 34

‘From the pages of prospect’ – No. 9

[Originally published] Issue 8, June 2002

  • Virtual schools
  • The radical restructuring of higher education
  • A choice of transformations for the 21st-Century university
  • Foresight Snippets, No. 23

Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 34”

Scanning Retrospective, No. 33

‘From the pages of prospect’ – No. 8

[Originally published] Issue 7, March 2002

  • From The Herman Trend Alert:
    • Metamorphosis of University Education
    • Internationalisation of Education
    • Upheaval in Education?
  • The Futures of Universities
  • Higher Education in the 21st Century
  • Foresight Snippets, No. 22

Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 33”

Scanning Retrospective, No. 32

‘From the pages of prospect’ – No. 7

[Originally published] Issue 6, December 2001
Special Issue – Preparing for the Swinburne Scenarios Project, 2002

  • A Primer on Futures Studies, Foresight and the Use of Scenarios
  • Envisioning (and Inventing) the Future
  • Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios and Strategy
  • From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action
  • The Swinburne Scenarios Project 2002

Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 32”

Scanning Retrospective, No. 31

‘From the pages of prospect’ – No. 6

[Originally published] Issue 5, September 2001

  • The Inevitability of a Business Model for Higher Education
  • Trends Transforming the Universities of This Century
  • Managerial Vision
  • The Notion of Entrepreneurship: Historical and Emerging Issues

Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 31”

‘Timing’ of scanning systems

The final major piece of the scanning puzzle is the issue of timing: how often, or according to what sort of timetable, is the scanning in your organisation to be carried out? That question depends on how aware you want to be about what is going on in the external environment, and what your tolerance is for the risk of being blindsided out of existence by events or emerging issues in that environment. (TL;DR: serious preparation requires serious resourcing of the scanning system; no shortcuts or excuses will cut it. Reality cannot be fooled.)

Continue reading “‘Timing’ of scanning systems”

Scanning Retrospective, No. 30

‘From the pages of prospect’ – No. 5

[Originally published] Issue 4, June 2001

  • Linking Strategic Thinking with Strategic Planning
  • Changing Ideas of the University
  • Bridging the Divide
  • Trend Alert: Recruiters Will Reach Into High Schools

Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 30”

Scanning Retrospective, No. 29

‘From the pages of prospect’ – No. 4

[Originally published] Issue 3, March 2001

  • Education: New Economy, New Challenges?
  • Reshaping Universities for the Future
  • Universal Tertiary Education
  • Academic Entrepreneurship in Higher Education

Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 29”