Foresight Snippets – No. 13
[Originally published] June 2001
[The Snippets moved to a monthly schedule as from June 2001]
- Back to the Future 2: 2001 — Memories are Made of Glass
- You’ve Heard of GMOs; What About GMAs — Genetically Modified Athletes?
- Thunderbirds are GO!
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 13”
In an earlier post I mentioned the term ‘futures intelligence’ in the context of the activity of gathering information about the future and undertaking what I like to call ‘futures intelligence analysis’. (Obviously, this is done with a view to utilising it for decision-making processes, such as setting strategy or developing policy, which is generally the end goal of any sort of intelligence analysis, futures or otherwise.) Here I want to expand briefly upon the multi-faceted concept of ‘futures intelligence’ itself, and two complementary ways that I think the term can be used.
Continue reading “‘Futures Intelligence’”
Foresight Snippets – No. 12
[Originally published] 15 May 2001
- The Hot New Medium: Paper
- The Antibiotics Crisis
- Homeopathy — Thanks for the Memory
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 12”
Foresight Snippets – No. 11
[Originally published] 30 April 02001
- Memes and Cultural Evolution
- The OECD Environmental Outlook is Released
- The Clock of the Long Now
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 11”
Foresight Snippets – No. 10
[Originally published] 12 April 2001
- Trends Affecting Education for the Next 10 Years
- Dolly Cloners Abhor Human Tests
- An Oath for Scientists?
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 10”
Foresight Snippets – No. 9
[Originally published] 30 March 2001
- Waves Run This Power Plant
- The Singularity
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 9”
Foresight Snippets – No. 8
[Originally published] 15 March 2001
- Research in the Business World
- Cashing In on the Future
- Privatising the University — the New Tragedy of the Commons
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 8”
Foresight Snippets – No. 7
[Originally published] 28 February 2001
- Would You Like a Mobile Phone With That?
- Cloning: Could Humans Be Next?
- A Framework for Making Sustainability a Practical Reality
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 7”
During our futures scanning – doing what I like to sometimes call ‘futures intelligence analysis’, which therefore makes us ‘futures intelligence analysts’ – we need a way to capture and retain the information about the scanning ‘hits’ we find.
Continue reading “Citation managers for futures scanning”
Foresight Snippets – No. 6
[Originally published] 14 February 2001
- A University That Wants Students to Stay Away from Class
- Report: On-line Training ‘Boring’
- Setting Standards for Web-Ed
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 6”
Foresight Snippets – No. 5
[Originally published] 30 January 2001
- The Untethered Campus
- A Hydrogen-Fueled “People’s Car”
- Living Under the Hole in the Sky
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 5”
Foresight Snippets – No. 4
[Originally published] 15 January 2001
- Does Reading Harry Potter Cause Global Warming?
- Oops! A New Bio-Weapon
- Back to the Future: 2001 — Is Tablet Computing About to Go Mainstream?
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 4”
Foresight Snippets – No. 3
[Originally published] 15 December 2000
- What price the “.tv” domain?
- You’d better be good! Darth Vader is coming to the lecture hall
- Everything old is new again: phone numbers vs URLs
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 3”
Foresight Snippets – No. 2
[Originally published] 27 November 2000
- Cellular Phones: Are They Safe to Use?
- You’re Hired — Now Stay Home!
- Lasered Lawns
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 2”
Foresight Snippets – No. 1
From the Foresight & Planning Unit
[Originally published] 17 November 2000
by Joseph Voros
- Universities Begin Creating Palm-Sized Versions of Campus Web Pages
- GM Goat Spins Web-Based Future
- Stick Your Finger in Your Ear and Go “Ting-a-Ling-a-Loo!”
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 1”
In August 2000, I was hired as a strategic foresight analyst in the Foresight and Planning Unit (FPU) of the (then) Office of the Vice Chancellor at Swinburne University of Technology. Part of this role was to conduct futures ‘scanning’ – by looking at the education ‘landscape’ through a ‘foresight’ time-frame much longer than is usual in conventional strategic planning; in our case, it was 10-20 years out. This obviously means that today, in 2021, the ‘future landscape’ being ‘scouted’ back then has since come to pass and become history. Hence the motivation for this experiment – to look back at what were picked up then as impending signals of change, and to compare what was reported in those days as future possibilities with what eventually came to pass as historical actualities. It has taken two decades to reach this point of being able to conduct such a ‘retrospective longitudinal assessment’ – and hopefully it should prove to be both interesting and instructive. It may also allow some real-world-data calibration of the utility of the heuristic principles for scanning described in the previous post. Continue reading “Futures Scanning – A Retrospective View”
As a futures scanner ‘back in the day’ (as they say), working in the corporate area of Swinburne responsible for undertaking organisational foresight and planning, and in the time since, I came to employ several heuristics or principles of scanning that I had found empirically to be useful. There are about ten of these that I can think of right at this moment, which I will enumerate below. But before I proceed, though, let me first explain one of the (many) models we used in our teaching in the old Swinburne Master of Strategic Foresight (MSF). Continue reading “Heuristic principles for scanning”
One of the principal practices involved in doing futures work is known as ‘scanning’. This term has a few variants — sometimes ‘environmental scanning’, sometimes ‘horizon scanning’, sometimes something else again — and these are often used interchangeably. I prefer to use the term ‘environmental scanning’ when the scanning pertains to the more proximal environment(s) of the organisation or entity that is the primary perspective from which the scanning is done, such as the market or industry in which it sits, while reserving the term ‘horizon scanning’ for the more distal aspects of the wider social, national or even international contexts. This is a fairly loose heuristic, but to me it helps connote the relative ‘closeness’ of the organisation’s ‘operating environment’ vs the relative ‘distance’ of the wider contextual ‘horizon’. Continue reading “Evidence of the future in the present”
How DEVO – like Cassandra – saw the future, tried to warn us, and was widely ignored
The title for this post comes from a song lyric by the avant-garde music group DEVO, namely, from the opening song ‘Time Out for Fun’ from their fifth studio album, Oh No! It’s DEVO. By the time that album was released in late 1982, DEVO as a band had spent the better part of a decade promoting the thesis of ‘de-evolution’ – the idea that humanity, rather than progressing, was actually regressing, and was in point of fact not evolving but really de-evolving (which was the origin of their name) to a more primitive state of mindlessly conformist automatons. Continue reading “‘Dark Clouds in the Crystal Ball’”
There have been two more formal publications on Big History recently: one a journal article – hinted at in the previous post – written in part to honour the memory of Erich Jantsch, the other a book chapter, as well as an informal podcast episode in the FuturePod series.
Continue reading “More Big History outputs”