A previous post listed 9 (or so) heuristic principles for futures scanning. At the top of that post, I intimated that there may well be more principles to follow once I thought some more about how to undertake what I consider to be best practice in scanning. And indeed it turns out that there are.
Here I add two more principles to those given earlier. The first codifies (and only half-jokingly ‘quantifies’) an observation from an earlier post about the difficulty of extracting useful data from a torrent of noise. The second is a somewhat abstract extension of The Feynman Principle, introducing a variational-directional dimension to it which maps onto a more advanced and subtle use of The Futures Cone. Continue reading “Two more heuristic principles for scanning”
Foresight Snippets – No. 3
[Originally published] 15 December 2000
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 3”
Foresight Snippets – No. 2
[Originally published] 27 November 2000
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 2”
NOTE: In all the posts in this series, the original source URLs are left exactly as they were when published 20-odd years ago. This means they will almost certainly be dead links (or good ol’ 404 errors). I do not have the patience or inclination to follow-up or find any archived or re-located versions of those web pages (because, well, life is too short). But, if it really bugs you, I invite you to see if you can find archived or relocated versions of those dead-link pages. And if you do, let me know, and I’ll update these posts with due credit to your detective work.
Continue reading “Scanning Retrospective, No. 1”
In August 2000, I was hired as a strategic foresight analyst in the Foresight and Planning Unit (FPU) of the (then) Office of the Vice Chancellor at Swinburne University of Technology. Part of this role was to conduct futures ‘scanning’ – by looking at the education ‘landscape’ through a ‘foresight’ time-frame much longer than is usual in conventional strategic planning; in our case, it was 10-20 years out. This obviously means that today, in 2021, the ‘future landscape’ being ‘scouted’ back then has since come to pass and become history. Hence the motivation for this experiment – to look back at what were picked up then as impending signals of change, and to compare what was reported in those days as future possibilities with what eventually came to pass as historical actualities. It has taken two decades to reach this point of being able to conduct such a ‘retrospective longitudinal assessment’ – and hopefully it should prove to be both interesting and instructive. It may also allow some real-world-data calibration of the utility of the heuristic principles for scanning described in the previous post. Continue reading “Futures Scanning – A Retrospective View”
As a futures scanner ‘back in the day’ (as they say), working in the corporate area of Swinburne responsible for undertaking organisational foresight and planning, and since, I came to employ several heuristics or principles of scanning that I had found empirically to be useful. There are about nine of these that I can think of right at this moment, which I will enumerate below. The list is unlikely to be completely exhaustive, however, and it may well end up including even more before I’m through with this extended series of posts on scanning. But this is a start. Before I proceed, though, let me first explain one of the (many) models we used in our teaching in the Master of Strategic Foresight (MSF). Continue reading “Heuristic principles for scanning”
One of the principal practices involved in doing futures work is known as ‘scanning’. This term has a few variants — sometimes ‘environmental scanning’, sometimes ‘horizon scanning’, sometimes something else again — and these are often used interchangeably. I prefer to use the term ‘environmental scanning’ when the scanning pertains to the more proximal environment(s) of the organisation or entity that is the primary perspective from which the scanning is done, such as the market or industry in which it sits, while reserving the term ‘horizon scanning’ for the more distal aspects of the wider social, national or even international contexts. This is a fairly loose heuristic, but to me it helps connote the relative ‘closeness’ of the organisation’s ‘operating environment’ vs the relative ‘distance’ of the wider contextual ‘horizon’. Continue reading “Evidence of the future in the present”